Ronald J. HansenArizona Republic
The vice presidential vetting process has rarely lasted so short and seemed so long.
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are the finalists for Vice President Kamala Harris’ decision that is expected Tuesday.
Each man seems to bring something to the ticket without damaging Harris’ prospects, said Lindsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian and executive director of the George Washington Presidential Library.
“She’s fortunate to be in the position of having three really strong candidates,” Chervinsky said. “That’s fairly unusual, and I think none would really cause her any harm, which is always the first rule of a vice presidential candidate.”
Over the span of about two weeks, Kelly, D-Ariz., changed from being a senator with a famous background to a spot on the short list for an overhauled presidential ticket in what is already a historic race.
It’s a similar story for Shapiro and Walz, neither of whom were on the 2024 political radar a month ago and are at threshold of a historic nomination.
Now all three men are expected to find out whom Harris picks about the same time as the public, Chervinsky said.
The “breakneck speed” of this process is the kind of thing that can lead to mistakes that Harris is hoping to avoid, said Michael Genovese, a presidential scholar at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.
“This is really a big test for (Harris) because not only is it the first big presidential decision, but it signals so many different things about who she is, what her goals are and what she expects to do as president,” he said.
Chervinsky said running mates can help provide a boost in their home state, but that hasn’t worked out in recent elections.
John Edwards couldn’t help John Kerry win North Carolina in 2004 for the Democrats. Paul Ryan didn’t deliver Wisconsin for Mitt Romney and the Republicans in 2012.
Kelly brings a toughness on border-related matters and has the kind of appeal to centrists that could come in handy in the general election. His biography as a former Navy combat pilot and astronaut is compelling, too.
Senator's finances: Mark Kelly's past business ties to Chinese tech firm explained
His more moderate politics, however, isn’t a hit with all labor unions and he isn’t seen as a dynamic speaker.
“His position on national security and immigration would actually help Harris because for moderate voters who care about those things, he has expressed similar concerns,” Chervinsky said.
“The potential downside I’ve heard about Sen. Kelly is that while he’s extraordinarily compelling on paper and obviously a very good person, he’s not as much as an inspiring orator as the others.”
Genovese, who has written dozens of books on the presidency, including “How Trump Governs,” said Harris reputedly likes Kelly personally, a quality that can’t be discounted in a competition that is so close anyway.
“That may be what tips the scales here because there’s no perfect candidate,” Genovese said.
Shapiro can presumably help where Democrats may need it most: Pennsylvania. It’s a state that Trump can still win without, but probably not Harris.
“It is unusual to see a 60% approval rating for anyone in this day and age. That is obviously very appealing,” Chervinsky said of Shapiro. The Democrats’ needs in Pennsylvania are “a very pressing concern” that argues for Shapiro, she said.
Shapiro is unusually popular in his state, but he may splinter Democratic factions with his rhetoric on Israel and the Palestinian cause for statehood during a time of war with Hamas.
Walz brings a likeability and has a knack for talking about politics in a way that is effective and appeals to people in the Midwest. At the same time, he may be seen as adding too much liberalism to a ticket already featuring Harris, who will be painted as a San Francisco liberal.
“He’s not what you call an inveterate, career politician,” Genovese said. “He’s a little too liberal maybe — and that may come back to haunt him — but he’s by all measures a really effective and popular governor. He didn’t come out of nowhere, but he almost did.”
Whatever Harris decides, it is expected Tuesday to avoid difficulties qualifying for the ballot in Ohio. Harris is scheduled to begin a seven-stop tour across the country with her running mate beginning Tuesday in Philadelphia and including a Friday stop in Phoenix.
“If you look historically, the pick for vice president hardly ever matters — except when it does,” Genovese said. In 1960, he said, Lyndon Johnson likely helped John Kennedy win Texas and the White House with it.
